Authors' recommendations: The evidence from this study suggests that ill individuals make substantial changes to their social contact patterns. Participants in the study made substantially fewer social contacts when they were ill compared with when they had recovered. The changes in contact patterns were strongly linked to absence from work and the severity of the reported illness, with age and household size also playing a role. Epidemiological modellers should therefore be wary of using data about ‘normal’ contact patterns to parameterise mathematical models of disease spread, and should consider the implications of illness-related behavioural changes on model predictions. This study highlights areas for future research. First, a more detailed study that aims to recruit a representative sample of cases would be particularly valuable; the study here, owing to its sampling methodology and the time constraints under which it took place, almost certainly ended up with a sample population that was experiencing relatively severe symptoms. Although such people are of interest, they are likely to display greater behavioural change than the average infected case. It would be of value to carry out studies, perhaps during forthcoming seasonal flu seasons, which measure the extent of behavioural change in a broader cross-section of infected cases. Second, as it was clear that children played a dominant role in the swine flu pandemic, and that they might be expected to do so in future pandemics, and as it was apparent from the UK incidence data that normal patterns of school holidays had a significant impact on transmission, we advocate more detailed studies of the social contact patterns of school children, particularly focusing on differences between school terms and school holidays. Our experience is that for school-based studies to be successful the researcher must be prepared to make a substantial investment of time and energy – such studies are therefore best conceived as long-term projects achieving high levels of engagement with participating schools, rather than as rapid exercises.

Project Status: Completed

URL for project: http://www.hta.ac.uk/fullmono/mon1434.pdf#nameddest=article04

Year Published: 2010

URL for published report: http://www.hta.ac.uk/2224

English language abstract: An English language summary is available

Publication Type: Not Assigned

Country: England, United Kingdom

Organisation Name: NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme

Contact Address: NIHR Journals Library, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre, Alpha House, University of Southampton Science Park, Southampton SO16 7NS, UK

Contact Name: journals.library@nihr.ac.uk

Contact Email: journals.library@nihr.ac.uk

Copyright: 2010 Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO