Authors' objectives:

The purpose of this systematic review was to support the selection and development of a model to forecast demand and supply for general practitioners (GPs) in New Zealand.

Authors' results and conclusions: There were two general strategies identified in workforce planning: 1) the use of modelling to forecast future supply of and demand for GP services. 2) the use of a more qualitative,"framework-type" approach to workforce planning (that did not include modelling). Advantages and disadvantages of both approaches are discussed in the report. Potential advantages to modelling include: - ability to estimate the level of difference between projected supply and demand for broad geographical regions and more localised regions. - ability to generate a quantitative result which is likely to be useful if planning changes in intake to the workforce. - ability to vary key input data in order to explore how differences between projected supply and demand may vary with changes in those input data. - ability to assess the level of performance of the model(s). - potentially able to monitor the accuracy of forecasts over time, which could be used to identify the need for refinements to the model. Key disadvantages to the modelling process include: - limited ability to predict changes in factors that may have a significant influence on supply and demand for general practitioner services. - limitations in the availability and accuracy of data sources may also result in inaccurate estimations. - potential lack of "buy in" from key stakeholder groups due to lack of confidence in the model(s) developed or the results generated by the model(s).

Authors' recommendations: The literature available did not allow a clear conclusion regarding the type of approach that should be adopted (due to the inherent limitations of the literature available). The type of approach to adopt should be guided by careful consideration of the purpose for review as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. Similar considerations apply to choice of model(s). The different types of approach had different strengths and weaknesses. Final choice of approach should be considered in light of: 1) the purpose of the review 2) type of data available in the region of interest 3) accuracy of those data sources 4) timeframe available for modelling? 5) budget available 6) level of expertise available to conduct the modelling

Authors' methods: Systematic review

Project Status: Completed

URL for project: http://nzhta.chmeds.ac.nz/publications.htm

Year Published: 2006

English language abstract: An English language summary is available

Publication Type: Not Assigned

Country: New Zealand

Organisation Name: New Zealand Health Technology Assessment

Contact Address: Department of Public Health and General Practice, Christchurch School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago, P.O. Box 4345, Christchurch, New Zealand. Tel: +64 3 364 1145; Fax: +64 3 364 1152;

Contact Name: nzhta@chmeds.ac.nz

Contact Email: nzhta@chmeds.ac.nz

Copyright: New Zealand Health Technology Assessment (NZHTA)